StockbrokerPro -- NOTES

StockbrokerPro.com NOTES, Monday, Sept. 29, 2003

THE MARKET/ECONOMY

- This October could be a bad month for the stock market. The downside risk is much greater than the upside potential. For new buying, I'd take a wait an see approach and be a buyer on the other side of October when a better view of earnings has been established and the better seasonal buying period is in effect. If you wait and October turns out to be not that bad a month, I promise you will not have missed much.

- Before a significant correction, we may take another shot at 9700 on the Dow (I doubt it, though), but I believe any rally will be a trading range rally and will only trap the bulls.

- 10-year Treasury yields have come down to 4.02%, the fourth straight weekly decline. The yield peaked at 4.65% on August 15^th. It bottomed at 3.14% in mid-June. Watch it break 4% and head lower.

- The dollar will get weaker and it may be its weakness that triggers a severe market correction.

- Oil prices will be going up from now on. OPEC will make sure of it.

- 30-year mortgage rates are below 6% again and the residential housing boom continues!

SOCIETAL AND POLITICAL COMMENTARY

- Liberals are at it again: hoping to manufacture a scandal! Yes I mean the CIA "outing" controversy. It is NOT a scandal! This is all about the attempt at forcing out President Bush's chief political strategist, Karl Rove, who is considered a political genius and the "brains" of the Bush political machine. The Democrats want Rove gone! They would consider his head on a plate as a major coupe. They will fail here as they have failed time and time again. Robert Novak (the journalist that "outed" Mrs. Wilson, who, by the way, is not a CIA agent, who is just a CIA employee), said Rove is not involved with this. Rove also said he is not involved with this as has the Whitehouse. Even Mr. Wilson, who initially blamed Rove is hedging. His new line is "At a minimum (Rove) condoned it, and he most certainly did nothing the six or seven days after the Novak article to discourage others from talking about it." Oh boy! Now that's a strong indictment! It's all utter nonsense. Mr. Wilson has reasons for his dislike of Rove that have nothing to do with this issue. Oh yes, I almost forgot to mention (as has everybody else), Mr. Wilson, on May 23, 2003, according to the Federal Elections Commission, has contributed $1,000 to the Presidential campaign of Senator John Kerry, Democrat. Hmmmm. I wonder what the agenda of Mr. Wilson is here. Hmmmm, I wonder if the Democrats and liberal media are pushing this thing along. Hmmmm.

- Those who say that the California court that made the California recall vote go forward (the vote will be held on October 7^th) is part of a Republican power grab, are very, very wrong. The 11 judge panel that voted unanimously for the vote to go forward is made up of 8 Democrats and 3 Republicans.

- California Governor Gray Davis in a recent speech had this to say about the diverse population of his state: "We have people of every planet on earth in this state." Wow! California really is diverse! Now, what was the reason that Governor Davis was being recalled?

- The illustrious Senator Kennedy on Iraq, September 18, 2003: "There was no imminent threat. This was made up in Texas, announced in January to the Republican leadership that war was going to be good politically. This whole thing was a fraud." And then he said that President Bush is "bribing" other nations to help us. Beam me up, Scottie! Now there is a true statesman! What is it they say about alcohol and brain cells?

- Massachusetts Senators Kennedy and Kerry called for President Bush to repay the U.S. $1 million for his "aircraft landing stunt." I wonder if they will be billing President Clinton a couple of million or so for the few times he did the same type of thing on aircraft carriers.

- North Korea called Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld a "psychopath" and a "stupid man." That is priceless. And then you get Democrat Presidential contender Senator John Kerry jumping on the North Korean bandwagon, asking for Rumsfeld's resignation. So now Kerry and North Korea are in agreement. Fantastic! Perhaps finally we are getting a glimpse of Kerry's foreign policy platform and maybe even who would be in his cabinet (perhaps the peace-loving North Korean dictator as Secretary of State!). My answer, in 2008: Rumsfeld for President!

… Newly born again Democrat and Presidential candidate General Wesley Clark, not too long ago had this to say about the current Administration that he is running against: "And I'm very glad we've got the great team in office, men like Colin Powell, Don Rumsfeld, Dick Cheney, Condoleeza Rice, Paul O'Neil, people I know very well, our President, George Bush. We need them there." I agree, Wes! (By the way, Wes, is there something in this endorsement of George Bush, et al. that you neglected to mention that compels you to run against them? Maybe it's just me!).

- General Clark's entrance into the Presidential race was supposed to give Democrats some clout in war management (which they sorely lack and are not trusted for by the majority of Americans). But it seems as though the Democratic Party war expert (General Clark) is a little confused about this particular war (that's the one in Iraq for those of you in Palm Beach County). In his first statement on the war as a Presidential candidate he said that he would have voted for the war. The next day he said that he made a mistake (a "major blunder" he called it) and reversed his position. If the General, as the great hope for the against-anything-military mindset of the Democrat Party, is confused about his one area of his "supposed" expertise, then why in fact is he even in this race. General, you do realize that this race is for THE PRESIDENCY of THE UNITED STATES?

- By the way, are you all aware that Clinton fired General Clark as NATO Commander?

- A couple of points on social security: It was Democrat Lyndon Johnson that took Social Security out of its own independent fund status and put it into the general fund to be spent. And it was the Democratic Party that put a tax on social security with the tie-breaking vote (in a 50-50 split Senate) made by Vice President Al Gore that made it so.

- Why is Dick Grasso (former CEO of the New York Stock Exchange) guilty of anything? He didn't pay himself all that money. He has a right to negotiate for as large a compensation package as he can get. After all, this is America! If anybody is culpable of anything it is the NYSE board of directors. This whole thing is absurd and is indicative of the times we live in. You determine what I mean by that.

- Boston Herald: A suicidal man, wearing a target on his chest, brandished a pellet gun and goaded a half-dozen sheriff's deputies in Knoxville, Tenn., into gunning him down. The deputies obliged, letting fly a barrage of 28 gunshots. They hit the man once, slightly wounding him. Clearly this is a citizen who counted on the competency of his local law enforcement officers. Guess you just don't get what your tax dollars pay for any more.

- By now I'm sure you have heard all the controversy regarding Mel Gibson's film, "The Passion," which depicts the final hours of Christ. What's interesting is that all the people who are supporting the project have seen the film while those attacking it haven't. Hmmmm. Seems like an appropriate metaphor for modern society in general.

- 14,802 elderly people died in France in the August heat wave! These elderly people were left in the cities with no air conditioning while family members and government officials were on holiday at the seashore. Seriously, this is truly tragic. It is also criminal and irresponsible on the French Government's part, to say the least. Perhaps a United Nations Resolution is in order denouncing the French Government for being so terribly neglectful of their elderly citizens.

- Was President Bush the lone cowboy that worried about Saddam Hussein's weapons of mass destruction that the Democrats and media would have us believe? Was he lying about weapons of mass destruction? Did he deceive us? Well, if he was, he sure was involved in a conspiracy with the most-unlikely of bedfellows. Check out what these prominent Democrats had to say about the weapons of mass destruction that don't exist:

(These quotes were just released by Investors Business Daily:)

"One way or the other, we are determined to deny Iraq the capacity to develop weapons of mass destruction and the missiles to deliver them. That is our bottom line." PRESIDENT CLINTON, Feb. 4, 1998.

"If Saddam rejects peace and we have to use force, our purpose is clear. We want to seriously diminish the threat posed by Iraq's weapons of mass destruction program." BILL CLINTON, Feb. 17, 1998.

"Iraqis a long way from here, but what happens there matters a great deal here. For the risks that the leaders of a rogue state will use nuclear, chemical or biological weapons against us or our allies is the greatest security threat we face." MADELINE ALBRIGHT, Clinton Secretary of State, Feb. 18, 1998.

"He will use weapons of mass destruction again, as he has ten times since 1983." SANDY BERGER, Clinton National Security Advisor, Feb. 18, 1998.

"We urge you, after consulting with Congress, and consistent with the U.S. Constitution and laws, to take necessary actions (including, if appropriate, air and missile strikes on suspected Iraqi sites) to respond effectively to the threat posed by Iraq's refusal to end its weapons of mass destruction programs." Letter to President Clinton, signed by Senators CARL LEVIN, TOM DASCHLE, JOHN KERRY and others, Oct. 9, 1998.

"Saddam Hussein has been engaged in the development of weapons of mass destruction technology, which is a threat to countries in the region and he has made a mockery of the weapons inspection process." Congresswoman NANCY PELOSI, D-Calif., Dec. 16, 1998.

"Hussein has chosen to spend his money on building weapons of mass destruction and palaces for his cronies." MADELINE ALBRIGHT, Nov. 10, 1999.

"There is no doubt that Saddam Hussein has reinvigorated his weapons programs. Reports indicate that biological, chemical and nuclear programs continue apace and may be back to pre-Gulf War status. In addition, Saddam continues to redefine delivery systems and is doubtless using the cover of a licit missile program to develop longer-range missiles that will threaten the United States and our allies. " Letter to President Bush, signed by Senator BOB GRAHAM, D-Fla., and others, Dec. 5, 2001.

"We begin with the common belief that Saddam Hussein is a tyrant and a threat to the peace and stability of the region. He has ignored the mandate of the United Nations and is building weapons of mass destruction and the means of delivering them." Senator CARL LEVIN, Sept. 9, 2002.

"We know that he has stored secret supplies of biological and chemical weapons throughout his country." AL GORE, Sept. 23, 2002.

"Iraq's search for weapons of mass destruction has proven impossible to deter, and we should assume that it will continue for as long as Saddam is in power." AL GORE, Sept. 23, 2002.

"We have known for many years that Saddam Hussein is seeking and developing weapons of mass destruction." Senator TED KENNEDY, D-Mass., Sept. 27, 2002.

"The last U.N weapons inspectors left Iraq in October of 1998. We are confident that Saddam Hussein retains some stockpiles of chemical and biological weapons and that he has since embarked on a crash course to build up his chemical and biological warfare capabilities. Intelligence reports indicate that he is seeking nuclear weapons." Senator ROBERT BYRD, D-W.Va., Oct. 3, 2002.

"I will be voting to give the President of the United States the authority to use force, if necessary, to disarm Saddam Hussein because I believe that a deadly arsenal of weapons of mass destruction in his hands is a real and grave threat to our security." Senator JOHN KERRY, D-Mass., Oct. 9, 2002.

"There is unmistakable evidence that Saddam Hussein is working aggressively to develop nuclear weapons and will likely have nuclear weapons within the next five years. We also should remember that we have always underestimated the progress Saddam has made in development of weapons of mass destruction." Senator JAY ROCKEFELLER., D-W.Va., Oct. 10, 2002.

"He has systematically violated, over the course of the past 11 years, every significant U.N. resolution that has demanded that he disarm and destroy his chemical and biological weapons, and any nuclear capacity. This he has refused to do." Congressman HENRY WAXMAN, D-Calif., Oct. 10, 2002.

"In the four years since the inspectors left, intelligence reports show that Saddam Hussein has worked to rebuild his chemical and biological weapons stock, his missile delivery capability and his nuclear program. He has also given aid, comfort and sanctuary to terrorists, including al-Qaida members. It is clear, however, that if left unchecked, Saddam Hussein will continue to increase his capacity to wage biological and chemical warfare, and will keep trying to develop nuclear weapons." Senator HILLARY CLINTON, D-N.Y., Oct. 10, 2002.

"We are in possession of what I think to be compelling evidence that Saddam Hussein has, and has had for a number of years, a developing capacity for the production and storage of weapons of mass destruction." Senator BOB GRAHAM, Dec. 8, 2002.

"Without question, we need to disarm Saddam Hussein. He is a brutal, murderous dictator, leading an oppressive regime. He presents a particularly grievous threat because he is so consistently prone to miscalculation. And now he is miscalculating America's response to his continued deceit and his consistent grasp for weapons of mass destruction. So the threat of Saddam Hussein with weapons of mass destruction is real." Senator JOHN KERRY, Jan. 23, 2003

Jeez, I guess Bush wasn't alone. But aren't these the same people harassing George Bush on going it alone and lying to the American people about Iraq's "supposed" weapons of mass destruction? As a matter of fact, if you listen to their rhetoric now, it's clear that liberals believe it is George Bush who threatens the U.S. and that poor Saddam Hussein was the victim of Bush's bullying ways with no other purpose but to advance himself politically. A little hypocritical, wouldn't you say? I wonder what has made these hypocrites sing a different tune. Could it be that the Democrats cannot get over the fact that they are out of power (by the way, this is thanks to Bill ClintonÖunder him they lost the Presidency and both houses of Congress) and will do and say anything to get it back? Even at the price of our national security? YES, YES, and YES! Power means everything to liberals. They should be ashamed of themselves.

(I apologize for taking up so much space on politics, but we are in the process of electing a President during a time of war, and I believe that as you listen to the current field of Presidential hopefuls you ought to be able to see the positions they held prior to their becoming candidates and compare them to the positions they now hold as candidates.)

And: all of this political stuff, in one way or another, is appropriate for an investment website, since our country's politics and culture are the foundation upon which an investment environment exists.

I would appreciate any and all feedback regarding anything in these NOTES.

SELF-IMPROVEMENT

The bestseller "The Four Agreements: A Toltec Wisdom Book" by Don Miguel Ruiz, is a magnificent book.

The Four Agreements are:

1) BE IMPECCABLE WITH YOUR WORD: Speak with integrity. Say only what you mean. Avoid using the word to speak against yourself or to gossip about others. Use the power of your word in the direction of truth and love.

2) DON'T TAKE ANYTHING PERSONALLY: Nothing others do is because of you. What others say and do is a projection of their own reality, their own dream. When you are immune to the opinions and actions of others, you won't be the victim of needless suffering.

3) DON'T MAKE ASSUMPTIONS: Find the courage to ask questions and to express what you really want. Communicate with others as clearly as you can to avoid misunderstandings, sadness and drama. With just this one agreement, you can completely transform your life.

4) ALWAYS DO YOUR BEST: Your best is going to change from moment to moment, it will be different when you are healthy as opposed to sick. Under any circumstance, simply do your best, and you will avoid self-judgment, self-abuse, and regret.

Wonderful stuff!

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From Broker Coach, David McKee (603)598-3794.

www.simpleintellection.com

"When trust is destroyed, the result is an uncertain world where the future is

not just unknowable but frightening, and where people cling to what they

have for fear that any change will be for the worse."

Lord Browne, Group Chief Executive, BP, plc.

When another person's trust is sought, the success or failure of obtaining that trust is determined by the number of circumstances by which you earned your own trust.

Trust is defined as assured anticipation; dependence on something future as if present or actual.

Intellection is that subject which definitely detects as well as removes all questions as to why deceit was attempted. To truly understand trust, you must understand deceit and why deceit was used instead of skill. I suggest seeking out an objective point of view, one that has no vested interest, someone who won't be intimidated by the emotions which protect self-importance. This someone must have the know-how to make your justifications for having performed below average confrontable with no condemnation or punishment.

To sum up: limited trust = limited understanding = limited credibility (by either poor work ethic or lack of skill) = a reliance upon deception.

Email me any and all comments at alidade@tellink.net

Thank you.

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